Gold Technical Update – September 30, 2025
This report updates our September 23, 2025 gold analysis, which itself built on the September 12, 2025 video. The bullish objective from the symmetrical triangle breakout near 3,778 (triangle breakout objective) was achieved on September 23. Since then, price has consolidated above former breakout zones, preparing for the next directional leg.
1. Market Overview
- Context: Triangle target at 3,778 was met on Sept 23; market paused afterward.
- Structure: Base forming above prior breakout levels (role-reversal support).
- Drivers: Dollar strength, bond yields, global risk sentiment, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
2. Technical Analysis
2.1 Trend and Moving Averages
- Trend remains bullish above both short- and medium-term moving averages.
- Breakout levels now acting as support zones.
- Momentum cooled post-target hit, but constructive bias remains intact.
2.2 Key Support & Resistance
| Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|
| 3,740 | 3,800 |
| 3,705 | 3,835 |
| 3,660 | 3,878 |
Levels derived from recent swing highs/lows, role-reversal areas, and confluence with moving averages.
2.3 Indicators and Patterns
- RSI (14): Neutral-to-positive; room for continuation if resistance breaks.
- MACD: Still above signal; momentum slowing but constructive.
- Price Action: Tight consolidation range; awaiting breakout confirmation.
3. Pivot Points (Using Our Calculator)
For intraday precision, use our Pivot Points Calculator. Based on yesterday’s high–low range, the indicative levels are:
| Pivot | S1 | S2 | R1 | R2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,770 | 3,742 | 3,715 | 3,797 | 3,825 |
Tip: Refresh inputs (High/Low/Close) in the calculator each day for updated levels.
4. Scenarios
4.1 Bullish
A sustained break above 3,800 with expanding volume could unlock 3,835 and 3,878. Recall that our September 23 update documented the 3,778 breakout objective, which was achieved—any fresh breakout would extend beyond that move.
4.2 Bearish
A failure to hold 3,740 could trigger a pullback toward 3,705 and 3,660. Closing below 3,660 would tilt the short-term bias to corrective.
4.3 Neutral
Consolidation between 3,740–3,800 remains possible while waiting for a decisive catalyst. Range-bound tactics apply until breakout resolution.
5. Chart-Based Update
Based on the chart attached below, gold broke above 3,805 USD/oz on September 29, 2025. This represents a bullish breakout from a rising price channel. Following this, a new upside objective has emerged near 4,225 USD/oz, along with a dynamic ascending target that starts from 4,225 and shifts higher over time.
When would this bullish view fail? If gold breaks below 3,700 USD/oz, the bullish scenario would be invalidated.
Chart showing breakout above 3,805 USD/oz with a new bullish target near 4,225 USD/oz.
6. Conclusion
Gold achieved the triangle breakout target at 3,778 and is now extending gains after a breakout above 3,805. As long as 3,700 holds, the bias remains bullish with scope toward 4,225. Traders should watch for confirmation signals while managing downside risk.
Call to Action
Use our free tools to sharpen your trading: Pivot Calculator, Position Sizing Calculator, and Risk Calculator. These resources help align key levels with disciplined risk and capital management.
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