Editor's Note: This article is an English translation and adaptation of an original Arabic article published on September 1, 2026 on Adel Onsi's Arabic financial markets blog. The figures, market expectations, and analysis discussed below reflect the information and market conditions available at the time the original Arabic article was published.

Global financial markets have recently witnessed an important shift in expectations surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming September 2026 monetary policy decision. While markets had previously leaned more heavily toward the possibility of keeping interest rates unchanged, expectations changed considerably within a relatively short period, and a 25-basis-point U.S. interest rate hike became the more likely scenario among market participants.

These developments are particularly important for investors and traders because U.S. interest rates do not affect the American economy alone. Their impact extends to the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, equity markets, commodities, and especially gold. Monitoring changes in interest-rate expectations has therefore become an important part of understanding current and potential market movements.

An interest-rate decision should not be viewed as an isolated event. The U.S. dollar remains the world's dominant reserve and trading currency, while U.S. Treasury securities are among the most important destinations for global capital. As a result, any change in U.S. monetary policy can lead to a redistribution of liquidity among the dollar, bonds, equities, gold, and other asset classes.

What Is the Current U.S. Interest Rate?

At the time of the original article, the target range for the federal funds rate in the United States stood at 3.50% to 3.75%, following the Federal Reserve's latest decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

Readers can follow official monetary policy decisions and statements from the Federal Open Market Committee through the Federal Reserve's official monetary policy page .

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September 2026 attracted considerable market attention, particularly after expectations of a 25-basis-point rate increase rose sharply. If such an increase were implemented, the target range would move from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%.

Market Expectations for the September 2026 Fed Decision

As shown in Figure 1, based on data displayed by Investing.com at the time, the most important development was not simply that the probability of a rate hike had reached 64.4%, but how quickly market expectations had changed within only one week.

The probability of the Federal Reserve leaving rates unchanged had stood at 58.6% one week earlier before falling to 35.6%. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25-basis-point increase rose from 41.4% to 64.4%.

This shift did not mean that a rate increase was guaranteed. These probabilities represented market expectations rather than an official Federal Reserve decision. Nevertheless, they clearly demonstrated a significant change in how investors were assessing the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.

Why Did Expectations for a U.S. Rate Hike Increase?

The change was not caused by a single development. Instead, several economic, political, and monetary factors emerged at roughly the same time and collectively altered market expectations. The most important factors included the following:

1. U.S. Inflation Remained Above the Federal Reserve's Target

   Inflation remains one of the most important factors influencing U.S. monetary policy decisions. The Federal Reserve aims to return inflation sustainably toward its 2% objective.

   However, the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data available when the original article was published showed that inflation remained above the Fed's target. This increased concerns among investors that inflationary pressures were still too persistent to allow the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy.

   Official PCE data and related reports can be reviewed through the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) .

   The July data showed the annual PCE inflation rate at approximately 3.7%, while the core measure, which excludes food and energy, stood at around 3.3%.

   With inflation remaining clearly above the 2% objective, markets began questioning whether the existing level of interest rates was sufficient to bring inflation back toward target or whether additional monetary tightening would be required.

2. A More Hawkish Tone From the Federal Reserve

   The second factor was a shift in the tone of Federal Reserve communication. Financial markets do not simply wait for the actual interest-rate decision; investors carefully analyze the language used by central-bank officials for clues about future policy.

   Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole gathering in late August strengthened the market's perception that the central bank remained highly focused on controlling inflation.

   The full remarks can be reviewed through the Federal Reserve's official Jackson Hole speech .

   Investors interpreted the remarks as relatively hawkish, particularly because of the emphasis on returning inflation to target and avoiding any premature conclusion that the battle against inflation had already been won.

3. The U.S. Economy Appeared Capable of Withstanding Higher Rates

   A third important factor was the ability of the U.S. economy to remain active despite the prevailing level of interest rates. When an economy is experiencing a severe recession or a sharp deterioration in the labor market, it becomes more difficult for a central bank to continue raising interest rates.

   When economic activity remains resilient and the labor market is relatively stable, however, the Federal Reserve has more room to continue fighting inflation, even if doing so requires additional monetary tightening.

   Markets were therefore weighing two competing risks: the risk of persistent inflation on one side and the risk of economic and labor-market deterioration on the other.

Higher Oil Prices Add Another Inflation Risk

The factors affecting market expectations were not limited to U.S. economic data. Oil prices also became increasingly important, particularly as energy prices rose amid greater geopolitical tensions and concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Higher oil prices can create a significant challenge for central banks because the impact of more expensive energy does not stop at fuel prices. It can gradually feed into transportation, shipping, manufacturing, industrial production, and service costs, potentially creating another wave of inflationary pressure.

A Reuters report on U.S. market movements highlighted growing concerns about inflation and monetary policy alongside higher oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields.

Some major financial institutions also revised their monetary-policy forecasts. Barclays, for example, came to expect the possibility of two additional 25-basis-point rate increases during the remainder of 2026, one in September and another in December.

What Does a 64.4% Probability of a Rate Hike Actually Mean?

It is important to distinguish between a Federal Reserve decision and market expectations for that decision. The percentages displayed by interest-rate monitoring tools are derived from the pricing of futures contracts linked to interest rates.

These probabilities therefore change continuously. They can rise or fall within hours in response to new economic data, statements from Federal Reserve officials, geopolitical developments, or broader market movements.

• A rising probability of a rate hike indicates that markets expect a more restrictive monetary policy.
• A falling probability of a hike implies a greater chance that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged.
• Higher-than-expected inflation data can increase expectations of a rate hike.
• Weak employment or economic activity data can support the case for keeping rates unchanged.
• Higher oil and energy prices can increase inflation risks and therefore strengthen expectations of tighter monetary policy.

How Could Higher U.S. Interest Rates Affect Gold?

Gold is one of the assets most sensitive to changes in U.S. interest-rate expectations. Investors in the precious metal therefore pay close attention to Federal Reserve meetings as well as inflation and employment data.

In theory, higher interest rates are generally considered a negative factor for gold because gold itself does not generate periodic income. By contrast, bonds and other fixed-income instruments become relatively more attractive as interest rates and yields rise.

Expectations of higher interest rates can also push U.S. Treasury yields higher and support the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar can, in turn, place additional pressure on dollar-denominated gold prices.

However, it would be a mistake to treat this relationship as a fixed mechanical rule. Gold is influenced simultaneously by many other factors, including geopolitical risk, inflation expectations, safe-haven demand, real yields, and global liquidity conditions.

For additional perspective on why investors should never assume that a strong gold uptrend can continue indefinitely, readers may refer to the original Arabic analysis: When Newspapers Said Gold Could Not Fall: What Happened in 1980, and Could It Happen Again? .

Readers can also review the technical perspective and the conditions associated with gold's price targets in: Gold Price Targets: Key Conditions and Important Technical Levels .

Does a Rate Hike Necessarily Mean Gold Will Fall?

The answer is no. Although higher interest rates theoretically create pressure on gold, the actual price reaction also depends on what financial markets have already priced in before the Federal Reserve announces its decision.

If gold rises or falls significantly ahead of a meeting because investors are anticipating a particular decision, a substantial part of that decision's expected impact may already be reflected in the market price. This is one reason why gold can sometimes move in a direction that appears inconsistent with the headline rate decision.

The Federal Reserve's accompanying statement and policy guidance can also have a greater impact than the rate decision itself. The central bank could raise interest rates while simultaneously signaling that no further increases are likely. In such a case, markets might interpret the overall message as less hawkish than expected.

Conversely, the Federal Reserve could leave rates unchanged while issuing strongly hawkish guidance suggesting that future rate increases remain likely. Under that scenario, the dollar and Treasury yields could rise and gold could face pressure even though the Federal Reserve did not actually raise rates at that meeting.

What Should Investors Watch Before the Federal Reserve Meeting?

Until the September meeting, market expectations can continue to change substantially. Looking only at the probability of a rate hike is therefore not enough. Several indicators should be monitored together to build a more complete picture.

• U.S. inflation data, particularly CPI and PCE.
• Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
• The U.S. unemployment rate.
• Average earnings and wage growth.
• Oil and energy prices.
• U.S. Treasury yields.
• The U.S. Dollar Index.
• Statements from Federal Reserve officials.
• Daily changes in market-implied probabilities of a rate hike or a hold.

Combining fundamental data with technical analysis and sound risk management can provide a more balanced framework for dealing with financial markets than making investment decisions based on a single headline or forecast.

Conclusion: The September Fed Meeting Could Be a Key Market Event

The rapid shift in market expectations from favoring unchanged rates to favoring a 25-basis-point increase reflected an important change in how investors viewed the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.

The probability of a rate hike increased from 41.4% to 64.4% within one week, while the probability of unchanged rates declined from 58.6% to 35.6%. At the time of the original Arabic article, this shift reflected growing concerns about persistent inflation, particularly against the backdrop of higher energy prices and a more hawkish Federal Reserve tone.

For gold, a continued increase in rate-hike expectations combined with rising Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar could create additional downward pressure. On the other hand, a decline in rate-hike expectations following weaker economic data or clearer evidence that inflation is easing could change the equation and provide support for the precious metal.

The period surrounding the September 2026 Federal Reserve meeting therefore has the potential to remain highly sensitive for gold, the U.S. dollar, and equity markets. The important factor is not simply the final interest-rate decision, but also how investor expectations change before the meeting and what the Federal Reserve communicates about the path of monetary policy in the months ahead.

Monitoring inflation, labor-market data, oil prices, Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and changing interest-rate expectations together can therefore provide investors with a clearer picture of the forces likely to influence financial markets.

Important Disclaimer: The interest-rate probabilities discussed in this article reflect market expectations at the time the original Arabic article was prepared on September 1, 2026. These probabilities change continuously and should not be interpreted as confirmation of a future Federal Reserve decision. The information provided is for educational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute a direct recommendation to buy or sell gold, currencies, equities, or any other financial asset.

When the Media Said Gold Could Not Fall: What Happened in 1980, and Could It Happen Again?

In late December 1979 and early January 1980, the issue was not simply that gold was rising. The more important factor was the language used by the financial press, which gradually created a widespread belief that the rally was “normal” and that a meaningful decline had become “illogical.”

Then came the breaking point. A sharp collapse suddenly redefined the meaning of risk within only a few days.

In this article, we will make a direct comparison between the 1979–1980 gold peak and the current gold rally through January 2026. The comparison is not based on price alone. It also examines the media narrative, investor behavior, and the catalysts capable of breaking a powerful trend.

First: What Did the Media Say Before the 1979–1980 Peak?

1) “The Gold Rush Continues” — and $500 Became an Everyday Headline

By the end of December 1979, financial news reports were increasingly treating major price breakouts as normal milestones rather than potential signs of market stress.

A clear example came from The Washington Post, which reported that the “gold rush” was continuing across the United States and Europe as gold moved above $500 per ounce in New York.

Source: The Washington Post – “Gold Rush of 1979 Continues” – December 27, 1979.

2) A Huge One-Day Surge Was Explained by Dollar Weakness and Heavy Buying

Reports soon began describing daily price increases of tens of dollars as understandable or even logical developments.

One report described gold climbing toward approximately $630 per ounce in London amid heavy buying from different regions, alongside weakness in the U.S. dollar and significant movement across global markets.

Source: The Washington Post – “Gold Soars to $630 as Middle East Investors Buy Heavily” – January 3, 1980.

3) London Gold Jumped to $755 as the Bullish Story Became Even Stronger

In London, the financial press also focused heavily on the accelerating price increases and connected them to a combination of political concerns and expectations surrounding U.S. policy.

An archived Financial Times report noted that gold had climbed to $755 per ounce following heavy trading.

The report linked the move to geopolitical concerns and to a U.S. decision to temporarily refrain from selling gold. It also noted that previous price declines had not triggered widespread profit-taking despite the extremely elevated price levels.

Source: Financial Times (London) – “Gold rises to $755 in London” – January 1980, archived text edition.

4) Even After the Peak, Extraordinary Price Moves Were Described as Almost Routine

Even within days of the peak, some media coverage continued to describe the extraordinary price action in an almost celebratory tone.

The progression from roughly $400 to $500, then $600, and eventually toward $800 and beyond was described as a sequence of dramatic moves that had almost become routine.

Source: TIME – retrospective coverage of the gold rally and January 1980 peak – January 28, 1980.

Summary of the Media Narrative Before the 1980 Peak

• Gold was increasingly presented as the logical solution to inflation and global instability.
• Large daily price increases were interpreted as evidence of strength rather than potential market exhaustion.
• Minor declines were often treated as implicit buying opportunities.

Second: The Breaking Point — How Did Gold Fall Despite Everything?

The Collapse Did Not Require Bad News About Gold Itself

On January 22, 1980, the market’s euphoria abruptly changed.

Gold dropped sharply and closed approximately $143 lower per ounce in New York. Contemporary reporting linked the move to volatility in European markets, growing panic, weakness spreading from the silver market, and changes involving commodity-market restrictions and margin requirements.

Source: The Washington Post – “Collapse of Gold Drops the Price $143 an Ounce” – January 22, 1980.

1. Psychological lesson: Investors had become convinced that major fundamental themes were the dominant force controlling gold prices. They then discovered that liquidity, leverage, margin requirements, and market restrictions could reverse a trend faster than many fundamental arguments could explain.
2. Technical lesson: When a price trend becomes extremely accelerated, even a mechanical catalyst such as forced liquidation, margin pressure, or contagion from another asset can transform an aggressive rally into a violent decline.

Third: Could the Same Scenario Be Happening Again in 2026?

1) The Safe-Haven Story Has Returned — but With Modern Catalysts

In January 2026, gold entered another powerful upward phase as safe-haven demand increased amid political and trade tensions.

Gold reached record highs above $4,700 per ounce, according to market reports published during the period.

Source: Reuters – “Gold scales new high past $4,700/oz…” – January 20, 2026.

British financial coverage also linked record highs in both gold and silver to sudden political and trade tensions that were simultaneously placing pressure on European financial markets.

Source: The Guardian – “Markets fall and gold and silver hit new highs…” – January 19, 2026.

2) The Major Difference: Central Banks and Institutional Demand

One important difference separates the current market from the 1979–1980 period.

In 1979 and 1980, much of the public narrative centered on individuals rushing to buy physical gold bars and coins.

Today, however, there is an additional structural factor: central-bank demand, changes in reserve-management strategies, and investment-fund flows.

These factors have become an important part of the long-term gold story.

Source: World Gold Council – “Gold Outlook 2026” – December 4, 2025.

Source: World Gold Council – “Central bank gold statistics…” – January 6, 2026.

3) The Media Narrative Has Changed — but the Psychology May Be Similar

In 1980, financial headlines were often more absolute in tone. The message could sometimes be interpreted as: gold simply cannot fall.

Today, financial reporting is generally more conditional and professional. Nevertheless, the underlying tone can still become strongly optimistic.

Phrases suggesting that gold could reach significantly higher targets during 2026 have appeared in forecasts from major banks and financial institutions.

Source: Reuters – reports on major banks raising 2026 gold price targets, including forecasts near $5,000 – January 13, 2026.

Source: Reuters – Goldman Sachs raises its December 2026 gold forecast to $4,900 – October 7, 2025.

Fourth: Quick Comparison — 1979–1980 vs. January 2026

Fifth: How Technical Analysts Can Identify a Potential “Media Top” Without Exaggeration

Instead of simply asking, “Will gold fall?” — a question that often lacks any useful timing element — investors may benefit more from asking:

• Repeated use of extreme language: Terms such as “record-breaking,” “unprecedented,” or “ultimate safe haven” begin appearing repeatedly in daily headlines.
• Analysis is replaced by certainty: The trend is no longer described as probable or likely; it begins to be treated as guaranteed.
• Market mechanics are ignored: Discussion focuses entirely on politics or macroeconomic narratives while leverage, liquidity, margins, and positioning receive little attention.

1. For technical analysts: Monitor the rate of acceleration, the slope of the trend, expansion in daily trading ranges, and an increase in unusually long candles or candles with large intraday tails.
2. For investors: Separate the long-term fundamental case for owning gold from the possibility that a short-term rally may still experience a significant correction caused by liquidity, news, or margin pressure.
3. For financial content creators: History should be used as a mirror rather than a scare tactic. The objective is to understand how media narratives can influence market psychology near major peaks.

Conclusion

The lesson from 1980 is not that another gold crash is inevitable.

The more important lesson is that certainty itself can become dangerous near major market extremes.

In 1979 and 1980, the financial press presented a convincing story built around inflation, geopolitical fear, and the need for protection. Yet market mechanics were capable of disrupting that story in a remarkably short period of time.

Today, during the record highs seen in January 2026, the details are different but some elements of market psychology remain familiar:

• Safe-haven demand.
• Expectations of significantly higher price targets.
• Rapid price acceleration that may attract late buyers.

The correct conclusion is therefore not to automatically believe that “gold will rise forever,” nor to assume that “the bubble will burst tomorrow.”

A more balanced approach is to focus on risk management, technical price behavior, liquidity conditions, and the financial narrative surrounding the market.

References

• The Washington Post – “Gold Rush of 1979 Continues” – December 27, 1979.
• The Washington Post – “Gold Soars to $630 as Middle East Investors Buy Heavily” – January 3, 1980.
• Financial Times (London) – “Gold rises to $755 in London” – January 1980, archived text edition.
• The Washington Post – “Collapse of Gold Drops the Price $143 an Ounce” – January 22, 1980.
• TIME – coverage of the gold rally and January 1980 peak – January 28, 1980.
• Reuters – “Gold scales new high past $4,700/oz…” – January 20, 2026.
• The Guardian – “Markets fall and gold and silver hit new highs…” – January 19, 2026.
• World Gold Council – “Gold Outlook 2026” – December 4, 2025.
• World Gold Council – “Central bank gold statistics…” – January 6, 2026.
• Reuters – reports on forecasts for gold approaching $5,000 during 2026 – January 13, 2026.
• Reuters – Goldman Sachs raises December 2026 gold forecast to $4,900 – October 7, 2025.

Gold Technical Analysis After the October 17, 2025 Session – Comparing Gold’s Rise with Egyptian Stocks

This article is a detailed summary of the Arabic YouTube video recently published by Adel Onsi. The video provided a comprehensive technical analysis of gold after the trading session on Friday, October 17, 2025, and explored a broader question: “Has gold been the best-performing investment in 2025, or have other assets outperformed it?” The discussion blended technical insight with real-world performance comparisons between gold and top-performing Egyptian stocks.

1. Overview of Gold’s Performance in 2025

1. Gold’s Trading Range on October 17, 2025:
   During Friday’s trading session, gold recorded strong volatility:
   • Lowest price: $4,186 per ounce
   • Highest price: $4,379 per ounce
   This wide range confirmed that bullish momentum has continued throughout the year.
2. Achievement of the Previous Target:
   The upward target set in the September 30, 2025 gold analysis — $4,225 per ounce — was successfully reached during the recent sessions.
3. Annual Gain in 2025:
   Gold started 2025 around $2,621 per ounce and peaked at $4,379 by mid-October — a stunning +67% increase within ten months, marking one of the strongest yearly performances in modern history.

2. Comparing Gold’s Rally with Egyptian Stock Market Performances

While gold impressed many investors in 2025, several Egyptian Exchange (EGX) stocks have actually matched or even exceeded its performance. Below are three standout examples from the Egyptian market:

1. Egypt Aluminum (EGX: EGAL):
   
   • Starting price (January 2025): EGP 115
   • Highest price (March 2025): EGP 195
   • Percentage gain: +68%
   • Including dividends, total return exceeded 70%.
   

   Chart: Egypt Aluminum price movement in 2025 showing a 68% rise and dividend impact.

2. Cairo Poultry (EGX: POUL):
   
   • Starting price: EGP 13
   • October high: EGP 25.80
   • Total increase: +88%
   This performance shows that even defensive sectors like food production can outperform gold during favorable market conditions.
   

   Chart: Cairo Poultry share movement from January to October 2025 highlighting its 88% surge.

3. International Federation of Agricultural Crops (EGX: IFAP):
   
   • January 2025 low: EGP 7
   • July 2025 high: EGP 26
   • Percentage increase: +248.5%
   A remarkable performance that demonstrates how mid-cap Egyptian stocks can multiply in value, far surpassing gold’s 67% rise.
   

   Chart: IFAP stock showing a 248% surge between January and July 2025.

3. Key Lessons from the Comparison

• Gold is mainly a store of value, not a rapid-growth investment.
• Equities, especially in emerging markets, can achieve superior capital gains when conditions are right.
• Successful investing means understanding your tools, not following hype or headlines.
• Between 2022–2025, Misr Aluminum rose 1,340% and Cairo Poultry 1,133%, proving equities can outperform gold long-term.

4. Technical Analysis of Gold (as of October 17, 2025)

1. Confirmed Bullish Breakout: Gold broke above its $3,805 resistance, fulfilling the prior target at $4,225 (see September 30 analysis).
2. Chart Timeframe: All levels are based on the daily chart, offering medium-term reliability.
3. Key Technical Levels:
   • First Support: $4,225 – turned from resistance to support.
   • Second Support: $4,125 – potential retest area.
   • Major Stop-Loss: $4,000 – a decisive level separating uptrend from reversal.
4. No New Upside Targets: The previous objectives ($4,282–$4,360) have been fully reached. Awaiting new pattern formation for next projections.

5. Broader Outlook and Trend Direction

• Gold remains bullish as long as it trades above $4,000.
• Breaking below $4,000 could trigger a correction phase.
• No bearish signals yet, though short-term consolidation may occur.

6. Summary of Key Technical Levels

7. Final Thoughts

Gold continues to act as a strategic hedge and wealth preserver, but diversification into equities — especially in outperforming markets like Egypt — can deliver exceptional growth potential. As of now, the $4,000/oz level remains the most critical line to monitor for trend confirmation.

📘 Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.